Leonidas Traffic (Part 2)

In one of my last posts I wrote about how much Fedora related traffic we had on our mirror server during the Fedora 11 release. I got one huge comment from Jef with three questions which I am trying to answer now.

1) Assuming you could find an accurate count of EU mirrors on F10 release. Can you use the ratio of available mirrors then to available mirrors now to re-scale the activity…sort of like a mirror inflation correction to scale activity in terms of available bandwidth.

As the mirrorlist is very dynamic I do not think I can answer that.  But if somebody has some useful numbers concerning the number of EU mirrors during the F10 release as well as during the F11 release it can probably be done.

2) Can you trend the “shape” of the first week of F-11 compared to the first week “shape” of F-10 activity on your mirror?  Forget about absolute scales. Normalize each to the maximum associated with the first 24 hours of activity and see how the activity trends in time relative to that normalization. Does F-10 for example see the same second day uptick relative to the first day that you see in F-11?

That should be possible. After some gnuplot-ing I have the following diagrams:

Downloaded Data (Normalized)

This shows the data transferred for each release (normalized to the first day). It is important, however, to know that the first day of a Fedora release is not 24 hours, but only 8 hours on our mirror server as the release usually happens at 16:00 local time. Therefore I also made another diagram using the absolute numbers:

Downloaded Data (Absolute)

It can be seen that basically only the first day differs for some reason. The following days were pretty much the same, just a bit less traffic than during the Fedora 10 release. So maybe this difference is related to my assumption that there are more mirrors in Europe. Although the amount of a traffic does not differ so much the mirror server has been in a much better state during the whole release. The load used to be much higher and the http server had no free connection slots available. This time the load was not really high and after the first day it was always possible to make a http connection (although it took longer than usual).

3)I’d be really interested to know if you could identify any upticks related to F-10 downloads further away from F-10 release that correlate with ambassador activity at an EU event.

No idea, but I have the amount of data downloaded per day for each mirrored project for at least the last year available here. So if there are certain dates it can be looked up.

For my own reference these are the gnuplot commands used to create the two diagrams:

gnuplot> set terminal png size 400,300
gnuplot> set output "absolute.png"
gnuplot> set xlabel 'Days Since Release'
gnuplot> set ylabel 'Terrabytes'
gnuplot> plot 'F10' smooth csplines title 'Fedora 10', 'F11' smooth csplines title 'Fedora 11'
gnuplot> set output "normalize.png"
gnuplot> a=2.23
gnuplot> b=1.54
gnuplot> set ylabel 'Downloaded Data (Normalized)'
gnuplot> plot 'F10' using 1:($2/a) smooth csplines title 'Fedora 10', \
>'F11' using 1:($2/b) smooth csplines title 'Fedora 11'

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